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While those two months hosted just 20 of 80 Big Four winners (25 percent) from 1986 through 2005, they’ve produced 29 of 48 Big Four winners since (60.4 percent).

All the bolded titles on this chart had a release date in October or November.

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For every , for instance, were two pre-October releases that lost Best Picture during this span.) Movies from the first nine months of the year have been Oscar surprises more than stalwarts ever since: They’ve won only two of the past 20 Big Four prizes (Cate Blanchett for ) and haven’t won more than seven of 20 since 1997–2001.

The graph below shows this trend, with the line denoting the percentage of the 20 Big Four winners from the previous five years that saw a pre-October release.

The Christmas rush yielded a majority of the topline winners in 1986, 1989, 1990, 1994, 1998, and each year from 2002 to 2005.

Studios flooded that sliver of the calendar with their best Oscar bait, creating a self-fulfilling set of circumstances; with the most qualified movies receiving a late-December release, those weeks were more likely to produce Oscar winners, thereby reaffirming their attraction, and so on.

It can also be argued that opted for a Christmas-leaning December 9.

But if the 2017 Oscar ceremony taught us anything, it is that nothing at the Academy Awards is certain.

is tied with the lowest odds in the Best Picture race, at 100-to-1, while Streep is the biggest underdog in the Best Actress category, at 80-to-1.

Neither Spielberg nor Hanks received an individual nomination at all.

During this stretch, no single release-date pattern emerged.

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