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My second was that people bought guns to defend against rape, but that doesn’t explain the negative correlation with robbery, and surely people would buy guns based on crime in general (and since it’s mostly men doing the gun-buying, rape would be the least likely to affect the gun rate). I acknowledge that he seems to be doing the right statistics, but can’t square that with commonsense eyeballing of the data. I did a reanalysis that found that (after adjusting for confounders) the gun data from 2002 successfully predicted the murder rate in 2002, but did not successfully predict the murder rate today, even though most other relevant variables did.I’m going to attribute this to gun ownership patterns changing faster than (say) whether a state is Southern or not, and probably if I had gun ownership data from today (which I don’t) it would work, but it seemed important to mention that and get it out there. I was shocked to see that between 20 to 30 percent of people in most European/Anglosphere countries owned guns, including the ones like Canada that gun control advocates hold up as an example of what they want.
The ESR test is a simple test dating back to the ancient Greeks.
A specific amount of diluted, unclotted blood is placed in a special narrow tube and left undisturbed for exactly one hour.
I admitted this was a problem and that it would take very powerful methods beyond my abilities to solve, but I also said that I suspected forward causation since the homicide causation remained independent of robbery and I would expect people to buy guns based on a general crime rate. Kleck has some studies that he thinks establish reverse causation instead, and I encourage you to read them.
This reminds me a lot of my post Beware The Man Of One Study – I can at least say in my own defense that I did the analysis on my own, which should obviate exactly which studies I did or didn’t look at, but the media articles that just presented MA&H and said “Look! ” really should have mentioned that there were also nineteen studies, 48% of the total, that disagreed with them.
That’s sort of true, but people have reminded me to think of it as an interaction.
Without the cultural factors in place, guns are pretty harmless.Unfortunately, the results were really weird: As you can see, rape is negatively correlated with robbery and %black, insignificantly correlated with homicide and urbanness, and positively correlated with gun ownership and suicide rate (which itself is heavily correlated with gun ownership).I also added one more variable in an attempt to explain some of this: MFRatio, which is the number of men per 100 women in the state.Here are some (hopefully) final thoughts on the matter: 1.In yesterday’s post, I suggested that the difference in homicide rates between America and other First World countries were about two-thirds cultural, one-third gun-related.He further claimed that the better the study, the less likely it was to find a significant correlation.Tags: Adult Dating, affair dating, sex dating